Analysts expect about 462,000 Tesla deliveries in Q3; official numbers due Friday
The consensus published by Tesla itself points to a dip from Q2 and from last year's record, but growth in energy storage.
On September 29 Tesla posted on its investor relations site the average forecast of 24 Wall Street analysts, who expect 461,974 vehicle deliveries in the third quarter of 2026. As always, Tesla stresses that these are the banks' projections, not company guidance.
The numbers at a glance
| Q2 2026 (actual) | Q3 2026 (consensus) | Full year 2026 (consensus) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3 and Model Y | 467,762 | 450,712 | 1,711,728 |
| Other models | 12,364 | 11,285 | 55,588 |
| Total | 480,126 | 461,974 | 1,767,255 |
If that figure holds, deliveries would be about 3.8% lower than in Q2 and roughly 7% below the record 497,099 vehicles of Q3 last year. Back then, US buyers rushed to claim the $7,500 federal tax credit before it expired on September 30, 2025, so the comparison is a tough one. The median estimate is slightly higher, at 463,406.
Energy keeps growing
For energy storage, meaning Powerwall home batteries and grid-scale Megapacks, analysts expect 15.9 GWh deployed in Q3, up from 13.5 GWh in Q2. The full-year consensus is 56.5 GWh.
Analysts can be far off
Last quarter is the best example. The consensus was 406,024 vehicles and Tesla delivered 480,126, more than 74,000 above it. Official Q3 numbers are expected on Friday, October 2, with full financial results later in October.
What it means for drivers
For buyers, delivery numbers matter indirectly. The end of a quarter, and especially the end of the year, usually brings sales pressure: ready-to-deliver inventory, financing offers and sometimes discounts. If Tesla wants to reach the roughly 1.77 million deliveries analysts expect for 2026, Q4 has to be strong, which could mean better deals for European buyers toward the end of the year.
